China’s hydrogen energy industry is exploring ways to break away from traditional development paths.

As a clean and efficient energy source, hydrogen is gradually emerging as a key driver of the global economy’s green transition. As the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, China is actively exploring high-quality development pathways for the hydrogen energy industry amid the broader boom in new energy sources.

At the 2nd Forum on High-Quality Development of the Petrochemical Industry, recently co-hosted by Sinopec and China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, academicians of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and expert scholars from Sinopec, CIIC, CNOOC, BASF, Standard & Poor's, and other enterprises focused their discussions on topics such as fostering new-quality productivity in the petrochemical industry and charting a course toward a new type of industrialization. This edition has compiled the key points related to the development of the hydrogen energy industry discussed at the forum—stay tuned for more details.

□ This reporter, Qin Zihan

Global Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Status

Zhang Jilong, Director of the Oil and Gas Division at the Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Consulting Center of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, introduced the global development status of the hydrogen energy industry in recent years.

Hydrogen energy policies are continuously being refined and improved. First, the number of national-level hydrogen energy plans continues to increase. 2023 New annual新增 14 A number of countries have launched national hydrogen energy strategies; the U.S., Japan, and Germany have updated their hydrogen energy strategies, while South America and the Middle East have set targets for developing hydrogen exports. Europe has proposed multi-sectoral targets for replacing fossil fuels with green hydrogen—for example, in aviation fuel. 1.2% From green hydrogen synthesis, and in 2030 Achieve industrial hydrogen production annually. 42% From green hydrogen. Second, the hydrogen energy subsidy system is tilted toward the upstream supply chain. For example, the Clean Hydrogen Tax Credit program under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and South Korea’s... “ Clean Hydrogen Certification + Tax credit ” Subsidy program. Third, a standards system for various sectors of hydrogen energy is gradually taking shape. The EU’s Renewable Energy Directive ( RED III ) Proposes raising the development targets for renewable energy and sets out detailed objectives for the application of non-biomass renewable fuels, with a particular emphasis on green hydrogen. It also calls for establishing relevant indicators and certification systems to ensure accurate calculation and verification of renewable energy usage, as well as to guarantee the authenticity and traceability of renewable energy sources. The International Green Hydrogen Organization has released the green hydrogen standard “[Standard Name]”. GHS 2.0 》，new standards for green methanol and green ammonia have been introduced. Fourth, shipping decarbonization policies are driving clear demand for hydrogen-based energy sources. The International Maritime Organization has upgraded its carbon reduction targets for the shipping industry, and the European Union has begun imposing a carbon tax on ships berthing within its territory.

The total capacity of green hydrogen production is expanding rapidly, with individual facilities reaching the tens-of-thousands-ton level. 2023 Year, newly added global electrolysis-based hydrogen production capacity 7.3 Ten thousand tons / Year-on-year growth 204% , expected 2024–2025 The year will continue to see rapid growth. Among them, the pipeline of large-scale green hydrogen projects overseas amounts to approximately... 50 First, global subsidies for green hydrogen production are gradually becoming available, and demand is growing in sectors such as shipping and chemicals for zero-carbon fuels and feedstocks. 2023 Globally, hydrogen production projects using water electrolysis are trending toward megaton-scale capacities, and among the completed projects, the number of facilities with hydrogen production capacities of 1,000 tons or more accounts for... 29% The world’s first 10,000-ton-scale green hydrogen project has been completed.

The scale of hydrogen refueling stations continues to expand, but there are significant differences among countries. In terms of quantity, nearly... 5 The number of hydrogen refueling stations built annually continues to increase, with an average annual growth rate reaching... 27%；2023 The global pace of hydrogen refueling station construction has slowed slightly, but still grew compared to the previous year. 12% From a distribution perspective, China has the largest number of hydrogen refueling stations built. 428 seat), with the fastest growth rate; Japan and the EU started earliest but have slightly slower growth rates; South Korea has relatively fast growth, but... 2023 The pace has明显 slowed down significantly; the development of hydrogen refueling stations in the U.S. remains at a relatively low level.

Fuel cell vehicle sales are steadily increasing, but there is significant divergence. In terms of scale, nearly... 5 Fuel cell vehicles have been steadily growing year after year, with an average annual increase exceeding... 1.7 Ten thousand vehicles, 2023 The annual pace has slowed slightly. 1.46 10,000 vehicles), a decrease from the previous year. 21% From a distribution perspective, South Korea leads by a wide margin in fuel cell vehicle sales, recently... 4 Year-to-date sales 3.4 Tens of thousands of units; China's fuel cell vehicle sales have grown significantly, 2023 No. 1 in global sales ( 5805 Taiwan); South Korea and the United States are respectively 2023 The second and third largest markets in terms of annual sales.

The application of green hydrogen conversion is becoming an important development trend. 2023 Hydrogen-based fuel vessels are beginning to enter the application phase, and methanol-powered vessels have become one of the mainstream alternative-fuel vessel routes in the international shipping industry. Globally, orders for methanol-fueled ships are on the rise. 130 vessels. Among the new orders for fuel vessels, methanol-powered vessels account for approximately... 13% Among the new orders for alternative-fuel vessel types, methanol-powered vessels account for approximately... 28% In addition, international ammonia-fueled vessels are beginning to enter the ordering phase.

Policies are driving the development of China's hydrogen energy industry.

Driven by the development of new energy sources and declining costs, China’s hydrogen energy industry is exploring a new path that moves away from traditional development models toward a new stage characterized by greenness, low carbon emissions, diversification, and high-end sophistication. “‘ 14th Five-Year Plan ’ Since then, the country has successively introduced a series of major policy initiatives, clearly defining hydrogen energy's strategic position, overall requirements, and key measures in China's energy transition, and outlining a blueprint for hydrogen energy development. ” Cao Yong, deputy director of the Industrial Development Research Institute at the China Petrochemical Economic and Technical Research Institute, said.

2022 Year, the country’s first “Mid- to Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry” ( 2021–2035 year), clearly defining hydrogen energy’s strategic positioning, development goals, and major initiatives within the new energy system. The “China Hydrogen Energy Industry Outlook Report” argues that, in the long term, hydrogen energy will be key to helping hard-to-decarbonize sectors—including industry, transportation, buildings, and power—achieve their carbon reduction targets by driving demand-side decarbonization. 2060 Expected to contribute annually 10 Gigaton-scale carbon reduction solutions. From now until... 2045 In the coming years, with a focus on reducing gray hydrogen and cutting carbon at the source, it will be possible to achieve reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. 5 hundred million tons; to 2060 In the coming years, primarily through replacing fossil fuels with green hydrogen and reducing carbon emissions at the end-use stage, further reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. 6 hundred million tons. By then, the hydrogen energy industry will play a significant role for our country. “ Dual Carbon ” Target contribution rate can reach 10%。2024 Year 7 In the "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development," it is pointed out that hydrogen energy should be promoted. “ Create energy and transmit it for use. ” Full-chain development; promoting the green transformation of transportation; improving the policy system for the green transformation of infrastructure networks such as hydrogen (alcohol) refueling stations, and establishing and perfecting a sound hydrogen energy ecosystem. “ Create energy and transmit it for use. ” Standard.

Meanwhile, local governments continue to explore and promote hydrogen energy. “ Production, Storage, Transportation, and Refueling ” Innovative policies.

Zhang Jilong introduced that, regarding policies for optimizing green hydrogen production and usage, Hebei has proposed: “ Green hydrogen production does not require obtaining a safety production license for hazardous chemicals. ” , Guangdong and other regions have proposed “ Explore / Allow the construction of integrated hydrogen production and refueling stations in non-chemical industrial parks. ” Promote the coordinated development of hydrogen energy and the petrochemical industry. Regarding the clarification of management procedures and measures for hydrogen refueling stations and the like, Zhangjiakou City has stipulated: “ Permit hydrogen refueling stations to handle approval procedures using leased land. ” Zhejiang and other regions have clearly designated the competent authorities responsible for hydrogen refueling stations. In terms of launching local demonstration projects offering multi-channel subsidies for green hydrogen production, Inner Mongolia and other regions provide declining subsidies based on actual hydrogen sales volumes, while Guangdong offers electricity tariff reductions and exemptions for integrated hydrogen production and refueling stations that use electrolysis to produce hydrogen. Additionally, Shandong and Jilin, among other regions, have waived highway tolls for hydrogen-powered vehicles.

China’s hydrogen energy industry is moving toward a transformative phase.

China’s hydrogen energy development has gone through a start-up phase and a growth phase, with the industry experiencing a dramatic expansion in scale and now moving toward a transformation stage. Since... 2020 Proposed annually “ Dual Carbon ” After setting its goals, China’s hydrogen energy industry faces both bottlenecks—such as the high proportion of fossil fuel use in hydrogen production and large-scale carbon emissions—and promising opportunities for expanding low-carbon end-use applications. “ Driven by the rapid development of new energy sources and the swift decline in costs, China’s hydrogen energy industry has reached a crossroads of transformation and is now exploring ways to break away from its traditional development path. ” Cao Yong said.

Luo Daqing, Secretary of the Party Committee and Deputy Director of the China Petrochemical Economic and Technical Research Institute, introduced that... 2023 This year, China's hydrogen production was approximately 3545 With a capacity exceeding 10,000 tons, it is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, primarily producing hydrogen from fossil feedstocks and industrial byproduct hydrogen. Hydrogen production from renewable energy sources is steadily advancing, with a total production capacity surpassing... 7 Ten thousand tons / Year. Hydrogen is primarily used for the synthesis of ammonia ( 33% ), methanol ( 27% ) and petrochemicals ( 25% ) In this field, the proportion of demand from the transportation sector is less than 10%. 0.1% 。

According to forecasts, China's hydrogen consumption will grow from its current level... 3545 From ten thousand tons to 2060 of the year 8600 Tens of thousands of tons, and there’s even potential to reach... 1 Over 100 million tons.

New energy sources are entering a stage of high-proportion development, and green hydrogen will become the key pathway to solving the challenges of consumption and integration. 2023 This year, the share of wind and solar power generation in China’s total electricity generation has surpassed. 15% has officially entered the third phase of new energy consumption (the share of wind and solar power generation). 15%~25% ). Expected by 2030 In the coming year, the share of wind and solar power in total electricity generation will exceed. 25% The demand for flexibility resources in power systems has surged dramatically, necessitating the expansion of frequency regulation power plants, the introduction of demand-side management, and the deployment of long-duration energy storage to address the challenges of accommodating renewable energy. In the process of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, hydrogen energy will provide a critical solution to China’s challenges in integrating and absorbing new energy sources, and will become an indispensable and vital component of the energy transition pathway.

Hydrogen energy applications are showing a trend toward diversification. Currently, hydrogen use in the industrial sector is primarily as a feedstock; in the future, it will expand into fuel applications, with the scale growing from... 2020 of the year 3000 Ten thousand tons / Increased annually to 2060 of the year 4500 Ten thousand tons / Year. Among these, the scale of hydrogen use in the chemical industry has remained largely stable, while the scale of hydrogen use in oil refining has gradually declined. Meanwhile, the scale of hydrogen use in the steel industry has expanded, emerging as a new frontier for industrial hydrogen consumption. “ Hydrogen Metallurgy ” Considered a substitute by the steel industry “ Carbon Metallurgy ” One of the key technologies for achieving carbon neutrality. It is expected that by... 2060 Year, proportion of hydrogen metallurgy processes 25% Hydrogen demand is expected to break through. 1400 Ten thousand tons—by then, it will be second only to hydrogen use in the chemical industry.

In the future transportation sector, hydrogen use will exhibit a development pattern characterized by land transportation taking the lead, followed by water and air transportation. It is expected that... 2060 Annual hydrogen demand for transportation is expected to exceed 2800 Tens of thousands of tons. The road transportation sector is the primary battleground for hydrogen use, and hydrogen-powered transportation will develop in a complementary manner alongside all-electric transportation. In maritime transport, low-carbon hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia and methanol will be the mainstay for hydrogen use. In the aviation sector, hydrogen-based fuels will play a certain role in substitution, with a particular focus on small aircraft and drones powered by novel fuel cell propulsion systems, as well as sustainable aviation fuels derived from biomass coupled with green hydrogen. For rail transportation, hydrogen will primarily target sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as hydrogen-powered sightseeing trains for tourist attractions and urban hydrogen-powered rail transit systems.

Building renewable energy power generation and hydrogen production in the power sector. “ Electro-hydrogen coupling ” The system enables optimized allocation of multiple energy sources across regions and seasons. It leverages the advantages of hydrogen energy—its large-scale storage capacity and long-duration storage capability—by establishing hydrogen storage power stations at the generation side, user side, and grid side as needed. These stations will participate in peak-shaving and frequency regulation, as well as seasonal peak-shaving, and will serve as complementary backup emergency power sources for key industries over extended periods, working together with other energy storage technologies to enhance the flexibility, stability, safety, and reliability of the power system. Meanwhile, through hydrogen (or ammonia) blending technologies and equipment upgrades, we will promote the carbon reduction transition of existing coal-fired and gas-fired power units.

“ Fifteen five ” Prospects for the Development of China's Hydrogen Energy Industry

Hydrogen energy will become a key option for China’s end-use energy sectors to achieve deep decarbonization. Cao Yong said: “‘ Fifteen five ’ During this period, China's new energy sector will experience rapid development. 2030 It is expected to surpass oil and become the second-largest energy source this year. ”

Green hydrogen has enormous potential in absorbing and utilizing new energy and renewable energy sources. “ Fifteen five ” China's installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to grow at an average annual rate. 2 100 gigawatts—the annual average increase in power generation will be from “ 13th Five-Year Plan ” of the covenant 1100 Increased to hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours 2200 hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours, nearly half of which come from centralized power plant projects. At the same time, due to insufficient electricity demand in the western regions and limitations in the capacity of power transmission channels, “ Three Norths ” The region urgently needs to enhance its local consumption capacity. By... “ Use the West for the West. ” By generating effective demand, green electricity-based hydrogen production can provide an important pathway for the large-scale absorption of green electricity and also help accelerate the development of a new industrial system that effectively links supply and demand.

2030 Next year, China's hydrogen consumption will increase from... 2020 of the year 3170 From ten thousand tons to 3900 Ten thousand tons—gray hydrogen consumption will... “ Fifteen five ” During this period, emissions will peak and then decline. In the medium to long term, low-carbon hydrogen will be key to achieving carbon reduction targets in hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as industry, transportation, construction, and power generation, thereby promoting the diversification of hydrogen energy applications. In hydrogen consumption, 2030 The share of applications in the industrial sector will be... 2020 Year 95% Drop to 93% , the transportation sector has increased to 2% , Other 5% From sectors such as power and construction.

In the industrial sector, hydrogen usage is steadily expanding and will continue to play a dominant role in hydrogen applications over the long term. Currently, hydrogen use in industry is primarily as a feedstock; in the future, it will extend into fuel applications, with the scale of such use— 2020 of the year 3000 Ten thousand tons / Increased annually to 2030 of the year 3600 Ten thousand tons / Year. Among these, the scale of hydrogen use in the chemical industry remains largely stable, with green ammonia and methanol emerging as key areas for transformation. Hydrogen demand in oil refining will slightly decline after reaching its peak, while the scale of green hydrogen used in refining and petrochemicals will expand. Hydrogen consumption in the steel industry will continue to grow. “ Fifteen five ” During this period, the share of hydrogen energy in industrial energy consumption remained basically stable at. 5% Left and right.

In the transportation sector, demand is growing rapidly and is poised to become the second-largest application area after industry in the future. Hydrogen-powered transportation is gradually entering a growth phase, and it is expected that by... 2030 In the year, the consumption scale of hydrogen in the transportation sector was 75 Ten thousand tons / Year (primarily using hydrogen indirectly), compared to 2020 Year-on-year growth 1.5 Twice the number of fuel cell vehicles in circulation exceeds 10 Ten thousand vehicles. The scale of direct hydrogen use in transportation will exceed... 10 Ten thousand tons / Year; the share of hydrogen energy in transportation energy consumption has increased from 2020 of the year 0.1% Increase to 0.5% ，2035 Reach the year 1%。

In the field of architecture, “ Fifteen five ” During this period, we will expand application scenarios and develop hydrogen blending and hydrogen-based combined heat and power (CHP) systems. The demand for hydrogen in the building sector will come from integrated energy services provided to residential and commercial facilities. 2030 Before the new year, in this field, direct hydrogen use was mainly limited to pilot demonstrations, except for some applications of hydrogen in city gas. “ Hydrogen to Every Home ” is gradually transitioning from an ideal into a reality. It is expected that “ Fifteen five ” Finally, the scale of hydrogen energy consumption exceeded... 70 Ten thousand tons / Year, the proportion of energy consumption in the construction sector was 0.4% Green hydrogen applications in this field are still in the stage of industrial cultivation.

In the power sector, establishing an electricity-hydrogen coupling system will provide flexibility and ensure security. Electricity-to-hydrogen coupling conversion will, in the long term, significantly enhance the flexibility, stability, and security of power systems. During the carbon peak phase, hydrogen used for power generation is expected to be primarily sourced from coking gas (with hydrogen produced as a byproduct), and hydrogen consumption will remain at a stable level. 100 Ten thousand tons / Annual Scale; “Action Plan for Low-Carbon Transformation and Construction of Coal-Fired Power Plants ( 2024–2027 The implementation of new policies for power sector decarbonization, such as the “Year-” initiative, will open up new opportunities for low-carbon hydrogen-based power generation. It is expected that by... 2030 Year, the national scale of low-carbon hydrogen used for power generation is approximately 10 Ten thousand tons / In the year, it is primarily applied through ammonia-blended power generation, hydrogen-blended power generation, and combined heat and power (CHP) systems using hydrogen fuel cells.

On the supply side, 2020 In China, nearly all energy used for hydrogen production has historically come from fossil fuels. As hydrogen production from renewable energy sources rapidly develops, by... 2030 In the coming years, the share of non-fossil energy in the energy mix for hydrogen production will exceed. 15% , of which the proportion of wind and solar power generation is 12% Above. Under the baseline scenario, “ Fifteen five ” Recently, China's electricity consumption for green hydrogen production has exceeded... 1400 100 billion kilowatt-hours, with annual green hydrogen production exceeding... 240 Ten thousand tons. 2035 In the years to come, the share of non-fossil energy sources in hydrogen production will rapidly surpass that of fossil energy sources.

The share of energy used for hydrogen production in primary energy consumption continues to rise. As the scale of hydrogen production expands, it is expected that by... 2030 Annual hydrogen production energy consumption share 3.4% , to 2035 Reach the year 5% Driven by green electricity-based hydrogen production, the share of electricity used for hydrogen production via water electrolysis in China’s total electricity consumption will continue to rise, from... 2020 Less than a year 0.1% Increase to 2030 of the year 1% Above, 2035 Will exceed after the new year 5%。

Currently, the cost of producing green hydrogen is... 18~45 Yuan / Kilograms, higher than gray hydrogen ( 10~19 Yuan / kilograms), which is close to blue hydrogen but still falls short in meeting the large-scale demands of industry. Currently, regions with lower green hydrogen costs are mainly located in the western areas, where wind and solar resources are exceptionally abundant. These regions typically lie far from the core hydrogen-consuming areas in central and eastern China. As a result, regional mismatches, difficulties in industrial integration, and high storage and transportation costs have become bottlenecks hindering the wider adoption and deployment of green hydrogen. “ Fifteen five ” This is a critical period for tackling key technologies in hydrogen energy, a demonstration phase for emerging hydrogen applications, and also a time when hydrogen energy can truly deliver on its promise. “ Dual Carbon ” The response period for the question.

Low-carbon hydrogen will... 2040 Competitiveness will take shape before the end of the year, and technological advancements along with economies of scale will accelerate the pace of cost reduction. In the industrial sector, green hydrogen and blue hydrogen will respectively... 2035 Year and 2040 As gray hydrogen becomes competitive, technological advancements in areas such as power-to-hydrogen coupling, carbon-hydrogen synergy, and hydrogen storage and transportation, coupled with the large-scale production and application of green hydrogen, will continue to drive down costs, enhance efficiency, and foster the growth of green hydrogen production. In non-industrial sectors, it is expected that... 2040 In the coming year, the terminal hydrogen supply cost in regions with favorable resource conditions is expected to drop to... 22~25 Yuan / Kilograms enter an economically viable range for multi-scenario applications.

Suggestions for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry

First, strengthen the top-level design for the hydrogen energy industry and develop medium- and long-term action plans. Accelerate the establishment of a policy framework for China’s hydrogen energy industry, refine relevant laws and regulations, and, building on already released plans, further clarify medium- and long-term development goals for hydrogen energy—particularly the targets for green hydrogen production during the latter stages of carbon peaking and the initial phases of carbon neutrality—and conduct research oriented toward... 2060 A yearly timetable and roadmap; deepening pilot programs for peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in low-carbon cities, provinces, and industrial parks; promoting demonstration projects for near-zero carbon emissions based on green hydrogen solutions, pilot parks for peaking carbon emissions, and leading demonstration zones for carbon neutrality; establishing and perfecting a voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading mechanism based on green hydrogen and its derivatives, and accelerating the realization of ecological and environmental value.

Second, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, focusing on... “ Strengthen and enhance the industrial chain. ” Carry out industrial cooperation and jointly break through bottlenecks in the green and low-carbon transformation and development. Accelerate the establishment of a hydrogen energy low-carbon technology innovation system that is enterprise-led, market-oriented, and deeply integrated across research, industry, academia, and application—particularly an innovative consortium for the production, storage, and utilization of green hydrogen—spanning the innovation chain, industrial chain, capital chain, and talent chain. Establish and improve incentive mechanisms that encourage independent innovation in hydrogen energy technologies and equipment and protect intellectual property rights, thereby promoting collaborative innovation and integrated development across the industrial chain, enhancing the domestic production rate and independent innovation capability of key technological equipment, strengthening international cooperation in hydrogen energy, fostering scientific and technological progress in low-carbon technologies, and advancing the wider-scale promotion and application of hydrogen energy.

Once again, we will target the industry’s weak links and introduce supportive policies, providing enterprises with greater policy support in the areas of finance, taxation, and finance. We will refine structural monetary policy tools such as carbon reduction support instruments and promptly launch a national low-carbon transition fund. We will actively develop climate-related investment and financing tools, initiate local pilot programs for climate investment and financing, and provide more market-oriented instruments to finance green hydrogen applications and low-carbon transformation projects in key industries, thereby reducing financing costs. The national special plan will incorporate more major research and development projects focused on hydrogen energy technologies and equipment in sectors that are particularly difficult to decarbonize. We will also increase financial support for large-scale demonstration projects involving green hydrogen in key industries such as oil refining, chemical engineering, and metallurgy.

Finally, establish and refine a comprehensive institutional framework to promote the low-carbon transformation of the hydrogen energy industry, and guide the scaled-up development of green hydrogen production and consumption. Establish and improve a carbon emission verification system for hydrogen production in key industries, through which... “ Dual control of carbon emissions ” Policy and carbon trading market mechanisms will systematically promote the low-carbon hydrogen production process in key industries and accelerate the large-scale production of green hydrogen. We will appropriately revise carbon emission intensity standards for key areas of hydrogen energy application, including establishing robust assessment methods for critical indicators, to guide users toward energy products and services with lower carbon footprints, thereby boosting consumption of green fuels and feedstocks such as hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, and speeding up the development of diversified hydrogen energy application scenarios. We will also strengthen carbon footprint management for exported products, reduce exports of low-value-added, high-carbon-footprint goods, encourage key export enterprises to increase their use of green electricity and green hydrogen, and proactively respond to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism.