Vigorously promote the substitution of renewable energy and build a green, low-carbon production and lifestyle.

Recently, in order to thoroughly implement the Party Central Committee and the State Council’s decisions and plans on peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, and to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy across all sectors and industries, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Transport, the National Energy Administration, and the National Data Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Implementing the Renewable Energy Replacement Initiative" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). These Opinions aim to promote the development of a green, low-carbon, and circular economy, and to foster the adoption of green and low-carbon production and lifestyle patterns. In this edition, we have invited experts to provide interpretations of the "Opinions." Stay tuned!

□ Zhou Xuefeng, China Petrochemical Economic and Technical Research Institute

To fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 20th Central Committee, to deeply carry out the major decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, to promote the development of a green, low-carbon, and circular economy, and to foster the formation of green and low-carbon production and lifestyle patterns, the State has formulated the "Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Implementing the Renewable Energy Substitution Initiative." These opinions clearly define the requirements for renewable energy substitution and lay out key tasks in three areas: enhancing the safety and reliability of renewable energy substitution, promoting substitution applications in key sectors, and conducting pilot programs for substitution innovation. They also specify the supporting measures for implementing the renewable energy substitution initiative, providing a roadmap for advancing renewable energy substitution.

The task of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is daunting.

With the extensive consumption of traditional fossil fuels, the global annual carbon dioxide emissions have exceeded... 400 hundreds of millions of tons—and the figure continues to rise. Emissions of greenhouse gases, led by carbon dioxide, are driving global warming, and the resulting frequent extreme weather events and rising sea levels have become threats to human survival and development. In the past... 170 For years, global temperatures have been steadily rising by approximately... 1.5 Celsius. If this trend continues, by... 2030 This year, the global temperature increase could reach 2 The Celsius warning threshold.

Against this backdrop, the transition to renewable energy sources—such as solar, wind, hydro, and biomass—has become an urgent priority. These sources are characterized by their cleanliness, low carbon emissions, and sustainability, offering humanity the best pathway to break free from its dependence on fossil fuels. Recently, the “Rio de Janeiro Summit Declaration of the G20 Leaders” once again reaffirmed support for achieving... 2030 The year saw a global increase in installed capacity of renewable energy. 3 The doubled target reflects the emphasis that major global countries place on replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

China actively participates in global emission reduction efforts and vigorously promotes the development of renewable energy. 10 In recent years, China has become one of the countries with the fastest reduction in energy intensity worldwide, cumulatively saving approximately... 14 100 million tons of standard coal, at an average annual rate 3.2% The growth rate of energy consumption has supported the average annual... 6% Economic growth; the installed capacity of new energy sources is growing rapidly, accounting for a significant share globally. 1/3 The above—China boasts a well-developed renewable energy industry chain and is a major global supplier of wind power, photovoltaic, and battery equipment; the number of new-energy vehicles in circulation accounts for more than half of the global total. According to statistics, 2023 This year, China’s investment in energy transition reached... 6760 Billions of dollars—the country that has invested the most globally in the energy transition.

For the first time, this “Opinion” explicitly sets forth the principle of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, namely: “ Overall planning and coordinated security, balancing supply and demand with orderly substitution, synergistic integration and diversified substitution, technology-driven and innovative substitution. ” The principles of safety, orderliness, diversity, and innovation for alternative energy provide a fundamental direction for the future development of renewable energy. "Safety" means adhering to the principle of establishing new systems before phasing out old ones, and achieving substitution on the basis of ensuring energy security. "Orderliness" refers to grounding ourselves in China's national conditions, fully leveraging the complementary roles among different energy sources, accelerating the promotion of incremental substitution, and steadily expanding existing-stock substitution. "Diversity" implies not limiting ourselves to just new-energy power generation; instead, we need to integrate substitution across multiple sectors, employing various approaches such as gas supply, heat supply, and hydrogen production. "Innovation" means speeding up the development of new scenarios, new models, and new business forms for renewable energy substitution.

The “Opinions” also, for the first time, put forward a target for replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, namely: 2025 The nation's annual consumption of renewable energy reached 11 Over 100 million tons of standard coal, 2030 The nation's annual consumption of renewable energy reached 15 Over 100 million tons of standard coal. Publicly available data shows that... 2020 This year, the scale of renewable energy utilization in our country reached 6.8 hundred million tons of standard coal. As can be seen from this, from... 2025 Year arrives 2030 This year, China still faces considerable pressure in terms of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Especially considering that, in the future, it will become increasingly difficult to absorb and integrate new energy power into the grid, achieving the goal of renewable energy substitution remains a daunting task. “ Fifteen five ” During this period, it is estimated that the current pace of building new-energy power capacity and grid peak-shaving capabilities should be maintained. At the same time, diversified alternatives—represented by hydrogen energy—will also need to reach a certain scale.

The path to enhancing the safety and reliability of renewable energy alternatives is gradually becoming clearer.

With the continuous development of new energy generation and new power systems, the path toward safely and reliably replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy has now become increasingly clear, and various related efforts are steadily advancing.

First, the construction of renewable energy is progressing steadily, while the issue of accommodating and integrating these sources is becoming increasingly prominent. From... 2021 Since the launch of the first batch of large-scale new-energy base projects nationwide, China has consecutively released three batches of lists for such large-scale new-energy bases. China’s development of new energy has now entered... “ Large-base drive ” Phase. Currently, the first and second batches of large-scale new energy base projects have been successively connected to the grid, and the third batch of large-scale new energy base projects is expected to be... 2025、2026 They will be connected to the grid successively throughout the year. “ Fifteen five ” During this period, according to the plan, there are still approximately 2.5 Large-scale new-energy projects with capacities totaling hundreds of gigawatts are awaiting construction and grid connection. In terms of hydropower, China’s hydropower resources in the central and eastern regions have largely been developed. Currently, the primary focus is on planning and developing hydropower bases along the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, the upper reaches of the Yalong River, and the mainstream of the Dadu River. These hydropower bases are predominantly located in complex mountainous and deep-valley areas in southwestern China—regions characterized by steep slopes, high altitudes, and significant temperature differences. As a result, development poses considerable challenges and requires lengthy construction periods. It is anticipated that... “ Fifteen five ” During this period, newly added hydropower capacity and “ 14th Five-Year Plan ” The gap during this period is not significant. Renewable energy sources such as biomethane, biodiesel, biojet fuel, and geothermal energy utilization remain relatively small in scale but are steadily advancing. However, with the construction of large-scale new-energy bases, the issue of grid integration and consumption of new energy is becoming increasingly prominent. According to data from the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center, so far this year... 7 For the past month, the wind power utilization rates in Inner Mongolia West, Inner Mongolia East, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet have been below... 95% ; In terms of photovoltaic power generation utilization rates, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet have utilization rates of: 91.9% 、 90.9% 、 94.3% and 71.1% 。

Second, supporting infrastructure is being accelerated, yet the overall situation remains tight. The State Grid and the Southern Power Grid... “ 14th Five-Year Plan ” During this period, the total investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed... 3 Trillion yuan, significantly higher than “ 13th Five-Year Plan ” Total investment in the national power grid during this period. 2021–2023 Year, the cumulative investment completed for domestic power grid projects 1.5 Trillions of yuan—just half of the total investment target. To achieve the overall investment goal, China will significantly increase its investment in power grid projects over the next two years. As of the first half of this year, China has cumulatively completed and put into operation a total of ultra-high-voltage projects. 39 Item ( 20 Straight 19 Intersection), the total length of the line is approximately 5.2 Tens of thousands of kilometers. According to national requirements, new construction projects will be initiated domestically this year. 5 Ultra-high voltage transmission lines ( 3 Straight 2 exchange). Overall, these ultra-high-voltage transmission lines still fall short in terms of power transmission capacity for large-scale new energy bases. China’s first transmission line designed specifically for transmitting... “ Shaguo Huang ” Ningxia Ultra-High Voltage Project Dominated by Large-Scale Power Plants — The Hunan ultra-high-voltage project has just begun construction. Currently, Ningxia is under construction and awaiting construction. — Hunan, Hami — Chongqing, Gansu — Zhejiang, Western Mongolia — After the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei corridor is completed, the power transmission capacity may see a slight increase. However, considering the ultra-high-voltage transmission corridors... 2~3 The construction period for this project is significantly longer than that of a photovoltaic power plant. 6~9 months, wind power project 1 With the ongoing construction of large-scale base projects, the capacity of ultra-high-voltage transmission channels will remain tight. The gas pipeline network and hydrogen supply network continue to be developed, but overall, due to unclear policy directions and technological trends, major enterprises are adopting a relatively cautious investment approach.

Third, the conventional regulation capacity of the power system is improving relatively slowly, and flexible resources are insufficient. 2023 This year, the share of new energy generation in China’s total electricity generation exceeded for the first time. 15% , to reach 15.6% has entered the high-proportion new energy phase as defined by institutions such as the International Energy Agency. Industry estimates suggest that the penetration rate of new energy sources is... 15%~20% At that time, the safe and stable operation of the power system will face severe challenges, necessitating a large amount of flexibility resources. The development of these new flexibility resources will lead to a rapid increase in the overall cost of the power system. Meanwhile, the enhancement of conventional regulation capabilities within China’s power system is relatively slow. 2021 Since the year, the country's coal-fired power units have cumulatively completed flexibility upgrades. 3 Over 100 gigawatts, based on the nation's coal-fired power generating units... 2027 Achieved before the new year “ Should be revised where possible. ” requirements, further renovations are expected to be needed. 3 hundred million ~4 Ten thousand gigawatts of coal-fired generating units, on average, increased... 10 The estimated peak-shaving capacity in percentage points can also be released. 3000 Ten thousand ~4000 megawatt-level regulation capability. According to statistics from the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Alliance, as of... 2024 Year 6 By the end of the month, the cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects (including pumped hydro storage, molten-salt thermal storage, and new types of energy storage) that have been put into operation in China has reached a certain level. 1.03 100 gigawatts, year-on-year growth 47% , than 2023 Year-end growth 20% Among these, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has exceeded 100 gigawatt-hours for the first time, reaching... 48.18 Giga watt /107.86 Gigawatt-hours, power capacity increased year-on-year. 129% , energy scale increased year-on-year 142% The cumulative installed capacity share of pumped storage continues... 2023 For the first time this year, it fell below 60% Afterwards, it dropped again by nearly 10 percentage point, falling below for the first time 55% According to the planning and approval status of pumped-storage power stations, 2025 The annual capacity of pumped-storage power stations is expected to reach 6200 Ten thousand kilowatts, at “ Fifteen five ” The total scale upon completion of production will meet national requirements. 1.2 Tens of thousands of kilowatts, primarily located in the East China, South China, and North China regions. Overall, although new energy storage technologies are growing rapidly, energy storage on the power supply side for new energy sources still faces challenges such as low equivalent utilization factors, significant profitability difficulties for stand-alone energy storage systems, and limitations in the overall scale of pumped-storage hydroelectricity, coupled with mismatches between its location and the primary areas of new energy generation. These issues continue to constrain the application of energy storage, preventing it from fully unleashing its flexibility resources.

“ Fifteen five ” During this period, it is essential to implement the renewable energy substitution targets. Given the relatively small scale of geothermal and biomass fuels, as well as the high construction difficulty and long lead times associated with hydropower, new energy sources—particularly wind and solar power—remain the primary means of achieving these renewable energy substitution goals. The development of large-scale new-energy bases must also continue to be promoted. However, considering the ongoing strain on ultra-high-voltage transmission channels and the gradual depletion of flexible resources in the power grid, as more and more new-energy power is integrated into the grid, the issue of accommodating such power will persist for the long term and become increasingly prominent. Against this backdrop, the "Opinions" propose advancing efforts along four key fronts: comprehensively enhancing the supply capacity of renewable energy, accelerating the construction of supporting infrastructure for renewable energy, deeply tapping into the potential of demand-side resource regulation, and diversifying measures to boost the flexibility of the power system. Specifically, enhancing renewable energy supply capacity involves developing large-scale new-energy bases, offshore wind power, hydropower, distributed renewable energy systems, biofuels, geothermal energy, and other projects; promoting the development of grid-forming new-energy technologies, advanced renewable energy power forecasting, and synergistic renewable energy-based heating systems. In terms of supporting infrastructure for renewable energy, this includes building ultra-high-voltage transmission lines, distribution networks, hydrogen supply networks, and other related projects, as well as fostering interconnection and interoperability among various grid networks. Deeply tapping into demand-side resource regulation potential entails advancing electricity demand-side management, expanding the scope of demand response programs, implementing peak-time pricing, widening price ranges in the spot market, and strengthening demand-side management in key sectors. Diversifying measures to enhance power system flexibility includes retrofitting coal-fired power plants for greater flexibility, constructing pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations, and intensifying the deployment of new energy storage technologies.

The petrochemical industry is an important area for the substitution and pilot programs of renewable energy.

The petrochemical industry is a major energy-intensive and high-carbon-emitting sector. It is a quintessential raw-material processing industry and also a vital pillar of the national economy. Compared with sectors such as energy, steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, textiles, and papermaking—mentioned in industrial decarbonization plans—the petrochemical industry faces greater challenges and heavier tasks in reaching peak carbon emissions. 2025 In the coming years, the carbon emissions trading market will cover cement, steel, and electrolytic aluminum—sectors in which the pathways to peak carbon emissions and renewable energy substitution options are already relatively well established. By contrast, the pathway for the petrochemical industry to reach peak carbon emissions remains less clear. This is mainly because the petrochemical industry faces significant challenges in replacing electricity with cleaner sources and has high carbon emissions from its industrial processes, placing even higher demands on the industry’s transition to renewable energy.

Currently, the primary approach for renewable energy substitution in the petrochemical industry is to replace conventional energy sources with renewable electricity. However, several challenges remain. First, petrochemical enterprises are generally located far from green electricity production sites, and their own green electricity generation capacity is too limited to support large-scale green power supply. Second, the equipment and technologies for electricity substitution in the petrochemical industry still lack sufficient maturity. Third, the petrochemical industry has high requirements for power stability, which places even greater demands on the stability of enterprise power grids when using green electricity. Meanwhile, current energy storage costs significantly increase the price of stable electricity. Fourth, under the existing pricing system, the cost of using electricity is much higher than the cost of using self-supplied fuels. Therefore, to establish a sufficient supply of green electricity for key petrochemical enterprises and use this as a foundation to gradually address these challenges, it will help accelerate the pace of renewable energy substitution in the petrochemical industry.

The “Opinions” propose to... “ Accelerate the promotion of renewable energy substitution applications in key areas. “” Actively promote pilot programs for innovation in renewable energy substitution. ” A significant portion of this work is related to petrochemical enterprises. The main activities include piloting green direct power supply at factories, promoting pilot projects for grid-forming, isolated-grid operation, and integrated utilization of renewable energy sources with self-provided facilities; launching integrated new-energy source-network-load-storage projects in areas surrounding industrial parks and large-scale manufacturing enterprises, thereby advancing the construction and application of industrial green microgrids, direct supply of green electricity, and replacement of coal-fired captive power plants; supporting parks, enterprises, and large public buildings in conducting pilot programs featuring a high proportion of new-energy sources in power generation, supply, and consumption, thus substantially increasing the share of new-energy electricity in overall consumption; encouraging the large-scale substitution of low-carbon hydrogen for high-carbon hydrogen in sectors such as synthetic ammonia, synthetic methanol, petrochemicals, and steel, and exploring the development of integrated wind-solar-hydrogen-ammonia-alcohol bases; and accelerating the integration of oil and gas exploration and development with renewable energy to create low-carbon and zero-carbon oil and gas fields.

Overall, the next step in promoting the substitution of renewable energy in the petrochemical industry hinges on intensifying the supply of green electricity within petrochemical enterprise parks. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Innovative Development of New Types of Market Entities in the Power Sector," which, in theory, ... “ New-type business entities ” We are qualified to build microgrids and coordinate power within them, as well as to explore the possibility of establishing direct links to new energy sources to increase enterprises’ supply of green electricity. Petrochemical enterprises can, through cooperation with grid companies and power generation enterprises, establish new types of market players in the power sector and promote the direct supply of green electricity to petrochemical plants. Furthermore, they can strengthen cooperation with neighboring enterprises, make full use of nearby resources, and advance the construction and application of industrial green microgrids. By collaborating with industrial parks, they can launch integrated projects that combine new energy sources, power grids, load management, and energy storage, thereby increasing the proportion of green electricity supplied. Additionally, they can explore the development of integrated bases for wind, solar, hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, proactively achieving the substitution of gray hydrogen with green hydrogen.