Decoding the "Three Key Highlights" of the 13th Five-Year Plan

On March 5, the draft of the 13th Five-Year Plan was submitted to the Fourth Session of the 12th National People's Congress for review. At 148 pages long, this draft is the most extensive yet among all previous five-year plan outlines. A reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that to scientifically interpret, understand, and grasp the draft outline, it’s essential to focus on the following "three key highlights": Highlight One: The draft meticulously sets four major categories comprising 25 key indicators. Among the economic development indicators, the GDP growth rate is targeted at above 6.5%, ensuring not only that China’s GDP will double by 2020 compared to 2010 levels but also aligning with the consensus held by both domestic and international research institutions.

Release date:

2016-03-08

  On March 5, the draft of the 13th Five-Year Plan was submitted to the Fourth Session of the 12th National People's Congress for review. The draft spans 148 pages, making it the longest among all previous five-year plan drafts. A reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that to scientifically interpret, understand, and grasp the draft plan, it’s essential to focus on the following "three key highlights":

  Highlight One:

  Scientifically establish four major categories with 25 key indicators.

  Among the economic development indicators, setting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at above 6.5% not only ensures that GDP will double by 2020 compared to 2010, but also keeps it within the 6%–7% potential growth range widely recognized by domestic and international research institutions—thus striking a balanced approach that addresses critical needs such as employment, structural adjustments, and environmental improvement. Additionally, specific targets have been clearly defined for increasing both the urbanization rates of the resident population and the registered household population, emphasizing people-centered urbanization as the core strategy and underscoring the imperative to dismantle the dualistic structure within cities.

  In innovation-driven indicators, targets such as achieving a 60% contribution rate from scientific and technological progress are proposed to measure the effectiveness of innovative development.

  In the category of people's livelihood and well-being indicators, it was proposed that per capita disposable income for residents should grow by more than 6.5%, 60 million rural impoverished people should be lifted out of poverty, and targets related to employment, pension security, and shantytown renovation should also be achieved—reflecting a vision of shared development and benefits for all.

  Among the resource and environmental indicators, mandatory targets have been set to maintain stable levels of arable land, achieve a cumulative 15% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, reduce the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 18% in prefecture-level and above cities that currently fail to meet standards, and improve surface water quality—reflecting tangible progress in conserving resources and protecting the environment. Additionally, the chapter also introduces indicators such as the share of service trade in total foreign trade, the reduction in the number of heavily polluted days, and the country’s total population.

  By setting these indicators, we further strengthen the development orientation toward innovation-driven growth, structural adjustments, addressing短板 (weaknesses), and improving people's livelihoods, thereby enhancing the sense of gain among the general public. At the same time, based on a careful analysis of evolving development conditions, we have rigorously calculated target values for each indicator, adhering to principles that guide expectations, allow room for flexibility, and ensure practical feasibility—while placing particular emphasis on striking a balanced and harmonious alignment among the various metrics.

  Highlight No. 2:

  Major policies are placing greater emphasis on leveraging new ideas and innovative mechanisms.

  Focusing on accelerating the establishment of institutional mechanisms that lead the new normal in economic development, and advancing the modernization of the governance system and governance capacity:

  First, the policy approach places greater emphasis on allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while simultaneously enhancing the government's role. Focused on fully unleashing the vitality of various market entities and fostering endogenous economic momentum, the plan calls for continuously advancing measures such as streamlining administration and delegating power, integrating regulation with oversight, and optimizing public services. It also underscores the need to strengthen property rights protection, improve the market system, deepen fiscal and financial reforms, and build a robust foundation of institutional frameworks. Additionally, it highlights the importance of establishing an inclusive policy support system.

  Second, the policy mechanisms will place greater emphasis on the complementary and coordinated roles of the market and the government. In areas such as innovation-driven development, industrial upgrading, ecological environment, and public services, significant measures will be introduced to strengthen the government's leverage in mobilizing investment, promote public-private partnerships, harness the role of government-guided funds, and enhance price regulation and tax incentives.

  Third, there is a greater emphasis on precision and sophistication in policy tools and approaches, with significant initiatives proposed such as targeted regulation combined with countercyclical measures, precise poverty alleviation and eradication, differentiated policies tailored to various functional zones, and industrial strategies that foster structural reforms.

  Fourth, we will place greater emphasis on fulfilling government responsibilities in addressing weaknesses, promoting balance, and safeguarding the bottom line. Specifically, achieving comprehensive poverty alleviation, ensuring employment stability, guaranteeing compulsory education, providing basic healthcare, securing essential pensions, and upholding minimum living standards will serve as key priorities for better fulfilling our governmental duties. To this end, we propose major initiatives such as increasing investment in poverty reduction, supporting the development of specially designated regions, and strengthening measures to protect people's basic livelihoods.

  Highlight Three:

  Major projects and large-scale initiatives place greater emphasis on strengthening the "five key pillars."

  Major policies, major projects, and significant initiatives are the prominent manifestations and key mechanisms for translating the Central Committee’s recommendations into concrete actions. Focusing on addressing weaknesses, strengthening long-term momentum, promoting balanced development, and elevating overall standards, a batch of “three major” projects has been carefully studied and proposed based on thorough feasibility assessments.

  The "Outline Draft" proposes more than 160 projects and initiatives across 23 special columns, primarily strengthening support for the various goals and tasks from five key areas.

  First, strengthen support for scientific and technological innovation by proposing the implementation of "6+9" major science and technology projects, along with several key talent initiatives.

  Second, strengthen support for structural upgrades by proposing the implementation of the High-end Equipment Innovation and Development Project and the Strategic Emerging Industry Development Initiative, while clearly outlining key tasks in areas such as information technology, agricultural modernization, new-type urbanization, and the development of a modern financial system.

  Third, strengthen infrastructure support and clearly define priority areas for development in sectors such as information, transportation, energy, and water resources.

  Fourth, strengthen ecological and environmental support by proposing the implementation of major projects such as the Resource Conservation, Intensive Use, and Circular Utilization Initiative, the Key Environmental Governance and Protection Projects, and the Mountains, Rivers, Forests, Fields, and Lakes Ecological Engineering Initiative.

  Fifth, strengthen the support for improving people's livelihoods by proposing the implementation of key poverty alleviation projects, basic public service initiatives, and a social care action plan—among other major initiatives aimed at enhancing daily life. Additionally, clearly define development priorities in areas such as education, health, employment, and culture.

  At the same time, as the first five-year plan following the comprehensive deployment of deepening reform, the Draft Outline places particular emphasis on properly managing the relationship between government and the market. In areas where the market can play a decisive role in resource allocation, it strives to provide clear guidance without getting into overly detailed descriptions or rigid requirements. Meanwhile, in sectors where the government must fulfill its responsibilities, the plan sets forth binding indicators and outlines key projects, initiatives, programs, and actions, thereby establishing specific and concrete expectations for the government.