20 provinces announce their 13th Five-Year energy plans

　　Recently, the "13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released. In the days leading up to and following this announcement, several provinces have already unveiled their own local "13th Five-Year" plans. As of the time this report was compiled, 20 provinces—including Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin—have publicly released the full texts of their "13th Five-Year" plans. Given the diverse developmental contexts across regions, the priorities in energy planning also vary accordingly. Our reporters have carefully analyzed the energy strategies of these 20 provinces, offering you a comprehensive overview of how each region is shaping its energy landscape during the 13th Five-Year period.

　　Increasing the share of non-fossil energy sources remains a long and challenging journey.

　　Although the local "13th Five-Year" plans are relatively broad in scope, they generally include either binding or indicative projections for energy development over the next five years. Building a modern energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient remains a shared goal. Clean energy has become the universally pursued direction.

　　In terms of energy structure, the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption and the proportion of renewable energy in total installed power capacity are two development indicators frequently mentioned by most provinces. Notably, the former is a binding target that must be achieved.

　　To tackle climate change and fulfill China’s nationally determined contributions, our country has solemnly pledged to the international community that by 2020, non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption. This goal was reaffirmed in the national-level 13th Five-Year Plan, which calls for an accumulated increase of 3% over the five-year period.

　　Looking at the situation in various provinces, Beijing, Gansu, and others are expected to have relatively optimistic prospects. By 2020, Beijing will have established a clean energy system primarily powered by electricity and natural gas, supplemented by geothermal and solar energy sources. The city aims to increase the share of high-quality energy consumption to over 90%, with renewable energy accounting for 8% of that total. Meanwhile, Gansu currently has a non-fossil energy share of 19.1% and plans to continue fulfilling its national targets over the next five years.

　　Provinces such as Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Ningxia set their 2020 targets for non-fossil energy share slightly below 15%. Currently, Jiangsu stands at around 8.5%, with expectations to reach approximately 10% by 2020. Ningxia is also projected to hit 10% by the same year. Meanwhile, Jiangxi has pledged to increase its non-fossil energy consumption share to 11% by 2020. Notably, provinces like Liaoning and Shandong, however, are aiming for targets that remain significantly lower than the 15% mark.

　　Additionally, although Qinghai, Shanxi, Shanghai, and other regions have not yet explicitly outlined their 2020 targets for the share of non-fossil energy, they have nonetheless introduced corresponding plans aimed at advancing energy decarbonization. Qinghai specifically aims to increase the proportion of green energy in its overall energy consumption structure. Shanxi has set a goal to reduce coal's share of primary energy consumption to 73% by 2020. Meanwhile, Shanghai has committed to boosting its natural gas supply capacity, with natural gas expected to account for 12% of primary energy consumption by 2020.

　　This clearly shows that China still has a long way to go in increasing the proportion of clean energy consumption. However, as China shifts its development drivers and energy demand growth slows down, the structural adjustment has finally encountered a rare and favorable opportunity, and this process is expected to accelerate significantly.

　　The proportion of clean energy in installed power capacity continues to rise.

　　Power installed capacity is another dimension for observing the energy structure. Meanwhile, regional "13th Five-Year" plans provide even more detailed depictions in this regard.

　　Over the next five years, the total installed power capacity across provinces will continue to grow, with plenty of potential for a cleaner energy mix. Meanwhile, more developed regions will further increase their proportion of externally sourced electricity.

　　Beijing has formulated an ambitious blueprint for transitioning its power generation to cleaner sources. By 2020, Beijing will have established a diversified local power supply system—centered around four major thermal power centers, supplemented by regional energy hubs, and further bolstered by new and renewable energy plants—achieving a 100% share of clean energy in its installed power capacity.

　　Fujian has set a goal to reach an installed power capacity of 70 million kilowatts across the province by 2020. A reporter learned that in 2013, the province's total installed power capacity stood at 42.01 million kilowatts. Meanwhile, the province aims to double its wind power capacity by 2020 compared to 2015 levels, while accelerating the construction of coastal nuclear power plants in Ningde, Fuqing, Zhangzhou, and Xiapu, among other areas. Looking ahead, it’s clear that wind and nuclear power are poised to significantly increase their share in Fujian’s overall power-generation mix.

　　The major economic provinces, such as the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, are prioritizing the development of local clean energy systems. Jiangsu has set a target of reaching 130 million kilowatts of installed power capacity by 2020, with wind and photovoltaic power each accounting for 8 to 10 million kilowatts, while biomass energy installations will hit 1.5 million kilowatts. Meanwhile, Zhejiang aims to achieve 8 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation by 2020—roughly on par with Jiangsu—while striving to generate over 3 million kilowatts from wind power and expanding its nuclear capacity to 9 million kilowatts.

　　Gansu, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other major energy provinces will continue to expand their power generation capacity, focusing on developing clean energy while enhancing their ability to transmit electricity out of the region. Gansu has set a target of reaching 75 million kilowatts of installed power capacity across the province by 2020, with renewable energy accounting for 60% of that total. The province also aims to export 60 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. Meanwhile, Inner Mongolia plans to have 140 million kilowatts of thermal power capacity and 80 million kilowatts of new energy capacity by 2020, representing 36% of its overall installed capacity. To ensure the efficient integration and consumption of new energy generation, Inner Mongolia intends to transmit 33 million kilowatts via four dedicated power transmission channels, while accommodating an additional 47 million kilowatts within the region itself.

　　Several provinces in the eastern region have proposed increasing the proportion of electricity purchased from outside. Beijing announced that by 2020, its capacity to receive power from external sources will reach 32 million kilowatts. Shandong, meanwhile, aims to accommodate up to 24 million kilowatts of electricity imported from other provinces by that time. Tianjin’s share of externally purchased electricity is expected to exceed one-third.

　　Setting a universal "ceiling" on energy consumption

　　While promoting a cleaner energy mix, local "13th Five-Year" plans also demonstrate a focus on scientifically managing total energy consumption.

　　Journalists have found that 20 provinces have mentioned controlling total energy consumption in their planning documents. Most provinces have pledged to keep their total energy use within the targets set by the national government. Taking the nation as a benchmark, the "13th Five-Year Plan" aims to cap China's total energy consumption at no more than 5 billion tons of standard coal, whereas in 2015, this figure stood at around 4.3 billion tons—representing an anticipated increase of roughly 16%.

　　However, conditions vary across provinces, and control targets also differ significantly. In addition to the provinces that follow the national indicators set by the central government, many others have established their own independent control objectives.

　　The most notable examples are Shanghai and Guangxi. Shanghai has set a target to cap its total energy consumption at below 125 million tons of standard coal equivalent by 2020. In contrast, the city consumed approximately 110 million tons of standard coal in 2014, meaning its energy use is projected to grow by just over 13% over the next five years—significantly lower than the national average growth rate expected for energy consumption. Meanwhile, Guangxi aims to limit its total energy use to around 130 million tons of standard coal by 2020. Given that Guangxi’s energy consumption stood at 95 million tons of standard coal in 2014, achieving this target would mean an impressive cumulative increase of 37% over the next five years—far exceeding the anticipated national growth rate.

　　Notably, while controlling the overall growth in energy consumption, many provinces have also proposed plans to reduce coal consumption. Amidst this balance of increase and decrease, the clean transformation of the energy structure has taken another significant step forward.

　　Beijing has pledged to significantly reduce the total amount of coal used in power plants, industry, heating, and residential sectors over the next five years, aiming to cap coal consumption at no more than 9 million tons by 2020. Meanwhile, Jiangsu will integrate coal consumption control into its "Three-Point Control" system—alongside energy intensity and overall energy use—and is determined to achieve negative growth in coal consumption by 2017. Shaanxi has announced plans to further cut coal usage in the Guanzhong region by more than 6 million tons by 2020.

　　Meanwhile, major energy-producing provinces have also set corresponding targets for controlling coal production. Shandong has pledged to cap its provincial coal output at around 100 million tons by 2020, while also aiming to reduce coal consumption by 20 million tons compared to 2012 levels—achieving a further decline in 2020. Shanxi, on the other hand, has committed to keeping its raw coal output below 1 billion tons by 2020, while simultaneously upgrading and optimizing its modern energy-intensive industries to promote local energy consumption and add value.